bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving round, a longtime market player said.
in a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of the DecenTrader trading suite, doubled down on its bullish BTC price outlook for the coming years.
Filbfilb Keeps Confidence in Bitcoin Halving Cycles
With BTC/USD approaching $30,000 but traders very suspicious of the 2023 rally, predictions of exorbitant BTC prices were poorly received.
Two current $1 million predictions, from the CEO of ARK Invest Cathy Wood and former Coinbase executive Balaji Srinivasanrespectively, continue to divide opinion in the aftermath of the crypto winter 2022.
Considering whether either has merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to determine likely macro highs and lows for Bitcoin after its next block grant divided by two.
Expected at the end of March next year, the halving will again reduce the block reward paid to miners by 50%. In previous four-year cycles after previous halvesBTC/USD exhibited behavioral patterns that hold true today.
“When using Days from the Bitcoin Halving (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halved); we can see that Bitcoin peaks around 368-550 days post-halving and then bottoms 779-914 days post-cycle,” Filbfilb summarized.
By generating a so-called “price curve”, his analysis shows that it may be possible to get a rough idea of where BTC/USD will be up and down in the next price reduction cycles. half.
“By combining the predicted halving dates and days for cycle highs and lows alongside the extrapolated regression of price data, it is possible to use this model to predict where Bitcoin price might reside at higher and lower in future cycles,” he continued.
BTC price at $200,000 or more?
So, on line along with 2013, 2017, and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup, in which Bitcoin peaks above $200,000 twice.
The corresponding low of the bear market a year later is around $50,000, according to the calculations.
While acknowledging that price volatility and the relative upper trajectory of the explosion will diminish over time, Filbfilb believes that the overall global trends towards digital stores of value will help Bitcoin bulls.
Still, for his part, he thinks the next cycle will bring a slightly lower high than the numbers suggest – around $180,000, already in play since February.
“I recently declared that $180,000 was the goal for the next cycle; I’ll stick to that for now,” he concluded.
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