Will it work? – Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis

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In the last update, I pointed out that it was crucial to exceed the monthly kama average (at that time about 40k usd), so bitcoin did and after a very strong low in July it resumed the uptrend on the monthly chart. Why a solid bottom? Because it was well above the support price zone defined by the lower bands.

At this point, it’s obvious that it will make a new high under the push of the decade-old uptrend, after all, bitcoin has never entered an extended bear market since its inception.
For some time, thanks to the price ranges, I have identified the price zone where the next high will occur, that is, between 80 and 130 thousand dollars. This is the SI minimum target, and I emphasize SI, the monthly average kama will remain stable.
If you look at the attached graph, you will notice that the monthly kama average is no longer flat but is increasing, albeit slightly.

BTCUSD monthly chart

This fact should be kept in mind because the greater the upward slope of the average, the lower the possibility that bitcoin will stop in the resistance zoneif an asset has a strong trend, you should forget about price ranges.
You may have noticed in the chart this aspect of the 19 months between the block halving and the market top, there are already two times that this market has topped in the 19 months post halving and in this cycle the expiration date is the next december, then the question arises, will this work?

I don’t think so, the market is never that symmetrical, we’re talking about non-linear dynamics here which almost never lead to high symmetry or repetitiveness in price patterns, so I expect it to do something different this time and there are two possibilities, either the max has already been reached or bitcoin will make another one even beyond 19 months from the halving I am inclined to the latter possibility with the important implication that it could break above the price resistance zone.

How do you translate this into your business operation? For the more risk averse, you can assess a reduction in the position to a point of your choosing within the 80k-130k usd range. For everyone else, you can use a dynamic stop loss as a “gloss exit” to try and exploit the current uptrend as much as possible. Search for “candlestick exit” or “candlestick stop” on tradingview, you will find many versions of this indicator.


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